We’ve hit our first checkpoint on the road to the Atkinson Cup, as four teams — Ice Harbor, West Virginia, Great Lakes, and South Side — are eliminated, and top two seeds in each conference join the fray after taking a round off. Here’s how the four series in the conference semifinals look.
(1) Adirondack Aces (59-14-9) vs. (5) Boston Banshees (40-35-7)
Head-to-head record: ADI won 4-2-0
Top scorers:
ADI: Kreider (82, 61-57-118), Kaprizov (75, 43-70-113), Karlsson (70, 41-58-99), Hintz (80, 36-61-97)
BOS: Thomas (82, 24-65-89), Josi (82, 12-62-74), Pavelski (82, 27-33-60), Thompson (71, 36-20-56)
Goaltenders:
ADI: Varlamov (27, 2.80, .921), Tarasov (22, 2.85, .908), DeSmith (17, 3.45, .890), Soderblom (16, 3.26, .880)
BOS: Sorokin (45, 3.77, .886), Brossoit (23, 3.42, .903), Annunen (14, 2.34, .931)
First, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Adirondack had a ridiculously great season. They had by far the best record, their team boasted a 61-goal guy (Kreider), three with more than 40 (Kaprizov, Crouse, and Karlsson), and six skaters with 90 points or more. They had the league’s best powerplay (27.3%), their PK was in the top third of the league, they were the only team to eclipse 400 goals on the season AND they allowed the fewest goals in their conference. Look out for Lawson Crouse, especially: he wasn’t one of the team’s top point-getters, but 12 of his goals were game-winners.
It’s fair to say that the Banshees have their work cut out for them. What they have in their corner is momentum from a modest upset of the West Virginia River Rats in an efficient five games. And if they can prolong the series to seven games, they might even force the Aces to play one of their third- or fourth-string goalies, since neither Varlamov nor Tarasov are eligible to play in more than three games.
(2) Farmington Fighting Saints (51-27-4) vs. (3) San Jose Hosers (49-26-7)
Head-to-head record: FFS won 5-1-0
Top scorers:
FFS: Miller (81, 75-74-149), Rantanen (80, 40-88-128), Fiala (82, 51-69-120), Toews (82, 16-58-74)
SJH: Stamkos (79, 63-54-117), Marner (69, 46-63-109), Tavares (80, 40-52-92), Gostisbehere (81, 21-50-71)
Goaltenders:
FFS: Lindgren (33, 3.50, .898), Thompson (29, 3.26, .894), Samsonov (20, 3.69, .896)
SJH: Shesterkin (55, 3.41, .908), Forsberg (28, 5.02, .857)
Just one point separated these two teams in the standings, but that’s all it took: Farmington got the bye, San Jose got to warm up its postseason with a five-game elimination of Ice Harbor in the opening round. Although their records were close, Farmington dominated the season series, winning five of six and averaging an eye-popping 7 goals per game.
Yet, the Hosers are the defending champions, and likely have an edge in goal if Shesterkin is at the very top of his game. Likewise, while Farmington is very deep on paper, its actual offensive production was quite top-heavy; the key for the Hosers will be trying to contain Miller-Fiala-Rantanen in the hopes that the Saints’ secondary scoring doesn’t rise to the challenge.
(1) El Dorado Lynx (50-19-13) vs. (6) Baltimore Crab (36-34-12)
Head-to-head record: EDH won 4-1-1
Top scorers:
EDH: O’Reilly (82, 31-54-85), Nylander (82, 35-49-84), Keller (77, 46-30-76), Kempe (77, 25-46-71)
BAL: Crosby (82, 43-77, 120), Forsberg (82, 52-60-112), Marchessault (82, 49-42-91), Makar (77, 17-73-90)
Goaltenders:
EDH: Bobrovsky (58, 2.90, .909), Quick (24, 3.05, .905)
BAL: Luukkonen (37, 3.25, .907), Vejmelka (30, 3.46, .891), Ingram (15, 3.88, .884)
The Crab ended Great Lakes’ Cinderella season, and get the pleasure of facing the league’s second-best team. The Lynx were tied (with Charleston) for the fewest goals allowed in the regular season and had the third best penalty kill too. Their top scorers barely beat a point per game, but they have scoring power up and down their lineup (to the point that Ovechkin, with a respectable 70 points, didn’t even crack the team’s top 4 this season), and the team will no doubt ride Sergei Bobrovsky in the postseason. This is a scary opponent.
Baltimore, meanwhile, had the bigger scorers during the regular season, led by Crosby, Forsberg, and a white-hot Marchessault who already has 7 goals these plays, but the forward group is top heavy and lacks depth. Still, Baltimore has a major edge on the back end — the Lynx don’t have an offensive weapon on the blueline who can come anywhere close to Cale Makar. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen doesn’t have Bobrovsky’s pedigree, but he turned in a pretty good season and the Crab net is likely his to lose despite a somewhat shaky opening round (.876). This has a good chance to be a closer series than regular season records would suggest. Of note: three of El Dorado’s four wins against the Crab came in Baltimore, so that’s something to watch after the first two games.
(2) Charleston Chiefs (48-25-9) vs. (4) Pittsburgh Hornets (39-35-8)
Head-to-head record: CHA won 5-1-0
Top scorers:
CHA: McCann (80, 43-64-107), Point (81, 43-51-94), Boeser (81, 44-44-88), Mittelstadt (80, 19-45-64)
PIT: Robertson (82, 42-50-92), Hughes (82, 24-65-89), Malkin (82, 26-59-85), Coyle (82, 34-42-76)
Goaltenders:
CHA: Georgiev (36, 3.23, .896), Stolarz (27, 2.49, .927), Grubauer (19, 2.88, .900)
PIT: Swayman (35, 2.91, .897), Vasilevskiy (27, 4.01, .883)
The Hornets steamrolled the South Side Renegades in the first round’s only sweep, and that momentum gives this series some upset potential. Getting past the Chiefs will be tough: this is a team that had the fourth best powerplay and was tied for the top penalty kill during the regular season, got a career season out of Jared McCann, who was one of three 40-goal scorers on the team, has a strong D led by Adam Fox and Miro Heiskanen, and — oh yeah — totally dominated the season matchups between these two clubs.
Charleston is a really good team, but it also has some flaws that Pittsburgh may be able to exploit under the right circumstances. Its forward depth isn’t amazing. And while it was tied for the fewest goals against, but in this series, by far its best-performing goaltender (Anthony Stolarz) is only eligible to play 3 games, so Georgiev/Grubauer will really have to rise to the challenge. At the Pittsburgh end, Jeremy Swayman had a disappointing regular season but was scintillating (4gp, 1.50, .936) in round one. Plus, all those Charleston wins over Pittsburgh came in the first half of the season — 40+ games later, it might as well be a new season.